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International comovements, business cycle and inflation : a historical perspective

机译:国际联运,商业周期与通货膨胀:历史的视角

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摘要

Using a dynamic factor model, we uncover four main empirical regularities on international comovements in a long-run panel of real and nominal variables. First, the contribution of world comovements to domestic output growth has decreased over the post-WWII period. The contribution of regional comovements, however, has increased significantly. Second, the share of inflation variation due to a global factor has become larger since 1985. Third, over most of the post-WWII period, international comovements within regions have accounted for the bulk of fluctuations in business cycle and inflation. Fourth, prices have become significantly less countercyclical during the post-1984 sample, with the largest contribution due to external developments.
机译:使用动态因子模型,我们在长期的实际和名义变量面板中发现了国际联动的四个主要经验规律。首先,在第二次世界大战后时期,世界联动对国内产出增长的贡献下降了。但是,区域合作的贡献大大增加了。第二,自1985年以来,由于全球因素引起的通货膨胀变化的比例变得更大。第三,在第二次世界大战后的大部分时间里,区域内的国际联动占据了商业周期和通货膨胀的大部分波动。第四,在1984年以后的样本中,价格的反周期性明显降低,由于外部发展,其贡献最大。

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